[WHAT IF #4] WHAT IF ARCHDUKE FRANZ FERDINAND HAD LIVED IN 1914?

[Bootie]

Could World War One could have been prevented, if Archduke Franz Ferdinand had survived the assassin's bullet?

"Franz Ferdinand was the strongest spokesman for peace in Austria-Hungary.

The assassination of the Archduke "removed this brake on going to war", and created "a pretext and incentive to go to war".

 

[Rico]

Franz Ferdinand also had some interesting ideas about turning the Austro-Hungaria into a multinational/multi-ethnic federal state with strong levels of self-determination for its constituent peoples ... although if would have managed to get these ideas workable in the face of rabid early 20th century nationalism and the chauvenism of the Hungarian part of the monarchy is up for question.

 

[Ithikial]

I'd have to go with a no. By this point Europe was already a pressure cooker geo-politically and about 20 odd years into an arms race. Politically the hawks outnumbered the doves on both sides. If not this event to act as a spark, it would of been another six months down the track that would have done it, or perhaps the wounding of the Archduke would have been enough.

There was actually a second assassination a on the 31st of July which some historians say was just as important, French trade unionist/labour leader Jean Jaurès. In 1912 he had organised a European union/worker led revolt which helped discourage an outbreak at that point and during the July crisis was trying to do the same when a French patriot who wanted war by chance noticed him in a cafe with his colleagues and gunned him down.

 

[Rico]

I have to agree with my esteemed Aussie colleague - while not inevitable, the balance was tilted in the hawkish direction.
Just reading "The Sleepwalkers" - by Christopher Clark - Europe was definitely primed for war and the individual governments basically so dysfunctional and paranoid as to be unable to steer clear of conflagration

 

[Trakks]

I have to agree with Ithikiel. It wouldn't have mattered if the assassination had taken place or not. Sooner or later some other catalyst would have appeared that plunged Europe into war. There are simply too many ethnic groups in Europe with long memories (and longer knives) with an axe to grind for peace to have been maintained for long. That is why I don't see the E.U. succeeding in the long run today. Europe has a history of tribal warfare that rivals that of the Middle East, Africa, or the indigenous Americans. The only difference is that historically Europeans have used more advanced weapons.