Drunk Science with Vartuoosi Lecture 1: Crew and Passenger Survivability

[Vartuoosi]

Ok kids, settle down. It's time for Doctor Vartuoosi to teach you about crew and passenger survivability in CMBS.
Let me just open a new bottle of thinking juice here.

Now this will be a longer series where I test different weapons vs different vehicles and the goal is go get some data how well people in those vehicles survive hits from different weapons. In the case of multiple hits on one vehicle I only count the survivors after the first pen. More penetrations are obviously gonna kill and maim more people and I wanna how these things deal with that initial damage.
We'll be starting with
The 100mm MT-12 AT-gun

VS
Bog-standard BMP-2

The BMPs are in a 3 groups of 3. These groups have different facing towards the guns(front, side, rear). They have crew of 2 (though IRL BMP-2 has a crew of 3) and infantry squad of 6 as passengers.
The guns will be firing from a range of 400m.
I ran this test 3 times and here are the results.
Some nomenclature:
TL= Total loss/no survivors. C= Number of surviving crew members. P= Number of surviving passengers
1./2./3. Vehicle number designation
Test 1
Front
1.C=1 P=1
2.TL
3.C=1 P=1
Side
1.TL
2.C=1 P=1
3.C=1 P=1
Rear
1.C=1 P=1
2.TL
3.C=1 P=1
Test 2
Front
1.TL
2.TL
3.TL
Side
1.C=1 P=1
2.C=1 P=1
3.TL
Rear
1.TL
2.C=1 P=1
3.C=1 P=1
Test 3
Front
1.TL
2.TL
3.C=1 P=1
Side
1.C=1 P=0
2.TL
3.C=1 P=1
Rear
1.TL
2.TL
3.C=1 P=1
There's the numbers for you nerds.
So out of total 27 destroyed BMPs 13 were total losses. Rest were just 1 crew and 1 passenger getting out. It doesn't seem to matter which way of the vehicle is facing relation to the guns. And the surviving crew member always seemed to be the gunner. All the hits were to the hull and only APFSDS rounds were used.
So the conclusion is: against a 100mm guns the BMP-2 is a horrible death trap. Kinda obvious.

 

[Vartuoosi]

So the BMP-2 didn't do so well against this particular weapon, but how about the brand spanking new Russia stronk IFV, the BMP-3M (ERA).

Test 1
Front
1.TL
2.C=0 P=1
3.TL
Side
1.TL
2.C=1 P=1
3.TL
Rear
1.TL
2.TL
3.C=1 P=1

Test 2
Front
1.TL
2.TL
3.TL
Side
1.TL
2.C=1 P=1
3.C=1 P=1
Rear
1.TL
2.TL
3.C=1 P=1
18 BMP-3Ms and 11 of them with zero survivors. And when there were survivors it didn't do any better than the BMP-2.
Yeah, this was a no-brainer since the BMP-3 is notorious of exploding with the power of a thousand supernovas when hit.

Next time the Bradley will enter the ring against the MT-12.

 

[Vartuoosi]

Time to see how M2A3 (ERA) fairs against the MT-12. Same setup as the BMPs except the American squad is 9 men strong and Brad's have a realistic 3 man crew.

Test 1
Front
1.C=3 P=2
2.TL
3.TL
Side
1.C=3 P=2
2.C=2 P=1
3.TL
Rear
1.TL
2.C=2 P=2
3.C=2 P=2

Test 2
Front
1.C=3 P=2
2.C=2 P=1
3.C=2 P=2
Side
1.C=2 P=1
2.TL
3.C=2 P=2
Rear
1.TL
2.C=2 P=1
3.C=2 P=1

Test 3
Front
1.C=2 P=1
2.C=2 P=3
3.C=3 P=3
Side
1.C=3 P=2
2.TL
3.TL
Rear
1.C=2 P=4
2.C=2 P=3
3.C=2 P=0

Test 4
Front
1.C=2 P=1
2.C=0 P=7 (Turret hit!)
3.C=2 P=2
Side
1.C=2 P=1
2.C=2 P=1
3.C=2 P=0
Rear
1.C=2 P=4
2.TL
3.TL

Looks like were getting some variation in here.
Out of 36 Bradleys 10 were total losses. This already is far better numbers compered to the BMPs. Quite often 2 of the passengers survive and you can see several times when 3 survived. When it comes to the crews it looks like being the driver is a death sentence. Gunner and commander have a good chance to survive.
The most interesting thing here is that front number 2 vic from test 4. That Bradley was the only one that took a hit to the turret and only two of the passengers were lost, while all of the crew perished.

For the next round of tests the MT-12 is going to be replaced by the SPG-9.

 

[Rambler]

All hail the drunk doctor. Great write up with interesting info.

 

[DoubleD]

Very helpful, I salute the boozing Fin.

 

[Gnarly]

Boozing Fins for the Win!!!!!!


Subbed!

Amusingly I did actually bring an MT-12 (or two) to a recent UKR vs RUSky match, and whilst I lost one to arty early (stoopid foxholes/sandbags are nothing but superb aim points for the enemy, and foot sloggers now evac them rapidly in a barrage, idjuts!!!), I did manage to bag me-self a BMP-2 with that 100mm of hotness!!!!
I fear that was likely the high point of the game though..... ;(

 

[Vartuoosi]

Alright, I put the SPG-9 on hold because that Bradley that was hit in the turret got me interested.
I tweaked the firing range so that the target vehicle end of the map has a slope, so now the targets are in hull down.
Will be retesting the Bradley first. Everything else is the same(3 crew/9 passengers) expect Brads are now hull down.
That being said positioning the vics was a bit tricky, some of the Brads still were hit in some small sliver of hull that was visible. I'll note the times when a hit to the hull happened.

INCOMING DATA

Test 1
Front
1.C=1 P=9
2.C=1 P=1 Hull hit
3.TL
Side
1.C=1 P=9
2.TL Hull hit
3.C=2 P=9
Rear
1.C=1 P=9
2.C=1 P=1 Hull hit
3.TL Hull hit

Test 2
Front
1.C=1 P=9
2.C=1 P=9
3.TL
Side
1.C=1 P=9
2.C=1 P=7
3.C=2 P=2 Hull hit
Rear
1.C=1 P=9
2.C=3 P=2 Hull hit
3.TL

Test 3
Front
1.TL Hull hit
2.C=1 P=9
3.C=1 P=9
Side
1.C=1 P=9
2.C=2 P=9
3.TL Hull hit
Rear
1.C=1 P=9
2.C=1 P=1 Hull hit
3.C=1 P=9

Well the numbers are quite clear. Passengers in the Bradley are quite safe if the hit is to the turret.
6 total losses with 4 of them caused by hits to the hull.
On two occasions I even saw a follow up hit to the turret cause no additional casualties. Though most of the time follow up hits caused 1 or 2 casualties with the passengers if they weren't able to bail out in time.

 

[Lt. Smash]

Good stuff, @Vartuoosi! I think the data on turret hits is fascinating and keeps me impressed with the CMx2 engine.

 

[steepdate]

Can someone make a study of crew survival of modern crews thinking about their "bae" vs historical crews thinking about their "ljubav"?

To be serious though, I feel like my Russian crews are just quite distracted by something.

Also: Anyone wanna play a game?

 

[Vartuoosi]

All right, got the BMP-2 hull down test done a while ago but the forums died when I was about to post it. Finally getting off my ass to write this down.
Boy was trying to get the BMP-2s into a proper hull down a pain in the ass. Because of the BMP's shape (hull is long and wide, turret is small and flat and relatively far back) a lot of the hit's ended up in the hull anyway, but that revealed another interesting thing. More about that later.
It should be noted that the AT-guns had a much harder time hitting the BMP-2s when compared to the Bradleys.

Anyway, let's get the raw numbers out of the way first.
Test 1
Front
1.C=0 P=4
2.TL Hull
3.TL Hull
Side
1.TL
2.TL Hull
3.TL Hull
Rear
1.C=1 P=5
2.C=0 P=4
3.TL Hull

Test 2
Front
1.TL Hull
2.C=1 P=5
3.TL Hull
Side
1.TL Hull
2.C=1 P=4
3.TL Hull
Rear
1.TL Hull
2.C=1 P=1 Hull
3.TL Hull

Test 3
Front
1.TL Hull
2.C=1 P=4
3.TL Hull
Side
1.C=1 P=5
2.TL Hull
3.C=0 P=5
Rear
1.TL Took two hits at exactly the same time
2.C=1 P=5
3.TL Hull

OK, as you can see when hit in the turret, the passengers a far more likely to survive. The passengers are still very likely to suffer a couple casualties but at least the majority of the squad is OK, not quite as safe as in the Bradley but better than nothing.

Now to the really interesting thing I mentioned earlier.
As you can see we have a few more total losses compered to the earlier test. You might think that it's just ordinary variation that can occur with the dice rolls here, but I'd like to offer an alternate hypothesis for peer review.

I happened to notice many of the BMP's that were hit on the hull (front and rear) were sporting two hit decals even though I was fairly sure these vics had taken only one hit. And I did check the replays several times and that turned out to be true.
I already knew that CMx2 simulates overpenetration to some extent. I've seen AP rounds pass through vehicles and hit something behind them before.
So I'm proposing that the slightly higher numbers in the total losses is being caused because these vehicles were essentially being hit by the same round twice.
First the round hits the hull and causes damage in the hull -> exits -> hits the turret and causes yet more damage in the same vic, this time in the fighting compartment.

Prove me wrong.
Ammattilaisjuomaraha: You can't.

 

[MwK77]

Boozing Fins for the Win!!!!!!


Subbed!

Amusingly I did actually bring an MT-12 (or two) to a recent UKR vs RUSky match, and whilst I lost one to arty early (stoopid foxholes/sandbags are nothing but superb aim points for the enemy, and foot sloggers now evac them rapidly in a barrage, idjuts!!!), I did manage to bag me-self a BMP-2 with that 100mm of hotness!!!!
I fear that was likely the high point of the game though..... ;(

I lost the BMP-2 against you
But revenge is sweet

 

[Boomkow]

All hail the drunk doctor. Great write up with interesting info.

Here here