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US withdrawal from Afghanistan - your thoughts?

Drug trade in Afghanistan est. to put $1.5 billion into Taliban coffers. Pakistan ISI takes a cut. REEs est. to be 1 to 3 trillion $. China knows this. US can hold China hostage of Oil (hence coal burning China) but China will hold the world hostage over REEs.
 
US can hold China hostage of Oil (hence coal burning China)
Nah, oil was only ever really important for vehicle/ship/aviation fuel. Oil fuelled power plants are rare. Coal was largely used for electricity production because it used to be cheap. Now China and many other countries are moving towards renewables because wind and especially solar have become cheaper. Also coal is used for heavy industry, which China has more of than the US.
 
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For example, I'm pretty sure Pakistan is content now that Afghanistan is now once again within their sphere of influence. So I don't think they are interested in any more dramatic developments there.
Sure they are. Of course, they are still pissed about Seal Team 6 capping Bin Laden about a mile from their big military HQ.
And nobody knew he was there...right!

As for the Afghani people, I feel for them. They are afraid of the Taliban and what they will bring to their society yet they won't fight. That is a shame. But I get it.

I worked with an expat Cambodian who was a child when his family fled Pol Pot's regime. He was pretty young but the stories he told me about Cambodia and his family's flight to the US gives me some understanding of these foreign "Killing Fields". If what happens in Afghanistan is anything like what this gentleman I worked with's family witnessed and went through then it is going to be very bad.
 
so in terms of whether anyone could have predicted the collapse of Afghan forces, as they say victory has a thousand fathers and defeat is an orphan.

In Vietnam, ARVN forces which were as corrupt and incompetent lasted almost 2.5 years after the U.S. left in jan. 73.

The soviet backed regime in Afghanistan managed to last almost 3.5 years. The Soviets left in feb. 89 and Kabul fell in april 1992.

Easy to say now it was clear to everyone that the Taliban would take over so quickly.
 
so in terms of whether anyone could have predicted the collapse of Afghan forces, as they say victory has a thousand fathers and defeat is an orphan.

In Vietnam, ARVN forces which were as corrupt and incompetent lasted almost 2.5 years after the U.S. left in jan. 73.

The soviet backed regime in Afghanistan managed to last almost 3.5 years. The Soviets left in feb. 89 and Kabul fell in april 1992.

Easy to say now it was clear to everyone that the Taliban would take over so quickly.
Well, look how fast the ISIS Caliphate got set up. It sprang up in a hurry. So that should have been a red flag right there that the "normal disintegration" rates for a regime are accelerated in that region. Poor risk management, poorer contingency planning. Of course, just listen to General Milley. He thinks "white man rage" is a bigger threat to the US than the Chinese or radical Islamic extremists.
 
I worked with an expat Cambodian who was a child when his family fled Pol Pot's regime. He was pretty young but the stories he told me about Cambodia and his family's flight to the US gives me some understanding of these foreign "Killing Fields". If what happens in Afghanistan is anything like what this gentleman I worked with's family witnessed and went through then it is going to be very bad.
I doubt it will get that far. For all their cruelty, Taliban doesn't seem like a mad genocidal regime like the Red Khmers.
 
Well, look how fast the ISIS Caliphate got set up. It sprang up in a hurry.
It grew underground for a long time before sprouting seemingly overnight like a mushroom. ISIS is an offshoot of Al Qaeda. It broke off and became ISIS in 2014.
 
From Aljazeera:

Taliban fighters massacred nine ethnic Hazara men after taking control of Afghanistan’s Ghazni province last month, Amnesty International has said in a new report. According to the Amnesty report, six of the men were shot and three were tortured to death, including one man who was strangled with his scarf and had his arm muscles sliced off. One man, Wahed Qaraman, 45, was taken from his home by Taliban fighters who broke his legs and arms, shot him in the right leg, pulled his hair out, and beat his face with a blunt object, the report said.
 
From Aljazeera:

An Afghan security guard has been killed in a firefight between unknown gunmen and Afghan forces at the north gate of Kabul airport, the German military said, as thousands thronged the airport, seeking to flee Taliban rule. Three more people were injured in the gun battle on Monday morning that has also involved German and US forces, the German military said.
 
I've read some reports about various not nice things happening all over the country, with the airport situation not really improving. Taliban don't want to delay after august, while NATO members urging for a longer stay. At the same time in the Pansjir valley some left of the old northern alliance has fortified themselves in the valleu, together with some regime cadre not willing to desert to Taliban. Now if they have to leave some equipment in the area, better drop it off in that Pansjir valley.
 
I'm no fan of the Taliban, but is it really worth it turning Afghanistan into yet another civil war by supporting 'our' guys in that valley?
 
Taliban don't want to delay after august, while NATO members urging for a longer stay.
I almost understand the Taliban position on this. From their point of view, US has already delayed from May 1st. Postponing again makes them lose face.
In his Mil-SF novel "The Last Centurian", author John Ringo coined the phrase, "Time of Suckage". That describes this reality rather well. :cry:
 
Do you want to leave those we have tried to trained to die without giving them an eye?
The decision to leave Afghanistans to their fate has already been taken, and not by me. The holdouts could join the 300,000 other soldiers trained by the West and surrender and survive instead of fighting a hopeless battle. Better peace under Taliban than another 20 years of war.
 
The crisis in Afghanistan has implications outside of Afghanistan beyond the obvious. I also wonder if this situation will lead to another surge of refugees headed for Europe.

From The Express:

BRUSSELS' calls for the formation of an EU army in response to the Afghanistan crisis have sparked the fury of Nexit campaigners in the Netherlands. Anger over the US approach to Afghanistan sparked plans for a European defense force from EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell this weekend. He wants to assemble an EU force of 50,000 men and women. He said Afghanistan could be the wake-up call for Europe. Nexit Denktank campaigners said: "You have to hand it to them: these unelected Brussels bureaucrats seize every opportunity to exploit a crisis for their own political schemes. An EU army is the end of Dutch sovereignty: no more own army, is the end of the Netherlands.

 
I think it will only trigger a huge wave of refugees if Afghanistan slides into full blown civil war. Being under Taliban rule is bad, but not like living under Islamic State
 
Letha what is the real political stengh of "Nexiter" beside being headline troll?
Situation like Afghanistan, Malia, Irak show to me that we (UE) need indeed a European Army of sort(or a very interconnected coalition).
 
The decision to leave Afghanistans to their fate has already been taken, and not by me. The holdouts could join the 300,000 other soldiers trained by the West and surrender and survive instead of fighting a hopeless battle. Better peace under Taliban than another 20 years of war.
FWIW the holdouts stated they do prefer a peaceful resolution, as long as that doesn't mean a totalitarian regime. Anyway I agree that a POTENTIAL relative peace under Taliban is to be preferred over 20 years civil war. But it all remains to be seen how peaceful things will become. I sure do hope with you.

On another note I do respect those who choose they'd rather fight than to serve (oppressors). This is fortunately not a binary choice for me, in other words I don't have to choose between respect for those who don't want to give up OR peace over war. None of the decisions is taken by me, nor do my actions have any tangible effect on the outcome.
 
The crisis in Afghanistan has implications outside of Afghanistan beyond the obvious. I also wonder if this situation will lead to another surge of refugees headed for Europe.

From The Express:

BRUSSELS' calls for the formation of an EU army in response to the Afghanistan crisis have sparked the fury of Nexit campaigners in the Netherlands. Anger over the US approach to Afghanistan sparked plans for a European defense force from EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell this weekend. He wants to assemble an EU force of 50,000 men and women. He said Afghanistan could be the wake-up call for Europe. Nexit Denktank campaigners said: "You have to hand it to them: these unelected Brussels bureaucrats seize every opportunity to exploit a crisis for their own political schemes. An EU army is the end of Dutch sovereignty: no more own army, is the end of the Netherlands.


Letha what is the real political stengh of "Nexiter" beside being headline troll?
Situation like Afghanistan, Malia, Irak show to me that we (UE) need indeed a European Army of sort(or a very interconnected coalition).
@Bartimeus I was just going to comment lol :)

To be honest I've never heard about the Nexit denktank (thinktank), but it doesn't surprise me that they even find a reason for Nexit in Afghanistan of all places. In other words I don't take them seriously and I wonder why The Express chose to interview them about this specific topic. Without trying to steer into politics I don't take the Nexit movement that serious; we are a trading country and have massive trade with EU. Access to internal market is crucial for us and I don't think we would have a stronger negotiation position compared to UK in Brexit, probably to the contrary. Plus there are no clear arguments what would defacto improve after Nexit.

Coming back to the EU army, I don't see that happening on the short/middle term. I don't think the EU bureaucracy is ready for it, let alone that the majority of EU will support it. That is unless the EU uses some of that big emergency funds to buy out Executive Outcomes to start a mercenary army. It would probably be an effective military though ;-)

Personally I think it would be good if the EU would operate more as a single bloc with regards to foreign policy. The internal divide makes it easy for other powers to split the EU and play it's members against each other, for third parties interests. And obviously a credible force would need to be able to put weight behind the EU foreign policy. How does one raise a 50k strong army though? And how would the army be politically controlled?

Perhaps a more realistic and or wise idea for the short term, would be to create a sort of EU-NATO. There is a already a lot of cooperation between armed forces of the EU memberstates. I think the issue isn't with the armed forces, but rather the memberstates agreeing on what the correct political action is.


Anyway I do think that the Afghanistan bailout might shake up international relations quite a bit. If USA withdraws before many of the 'coalition countries' are able to withdraw their personnel, it might have very serious consequences. Because in simple speak, the reason for most countries to even be in Afghanistan is to support USA. Now if the USA helps themselves out, while leaving a lot of the coalition partners with too little time to evacuate; I guess that the coalition partners wouldn't be happy about it and look at USA like 'I support you then you leave me in the shit'.

Which might indeed have it's influence for any future coalitions, which won't really hurt USA military imo but it might hurt them geopolitically / strategically.
 
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