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Assessing the Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine (so far)

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"Nations are born in the battlefield and forged in stories."

"In fire iron turns into steel, in struggle people turn into a nation"

Decent analysis:


And its interesting to compare this to how Caspian Report predicted how a war would progress before it started:

 
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Septic Limb said:
Ukrainians will still be somebody's bitch, whether it is Putin or US-led NATO,
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That's not actually how NATO works. If Putin can be driven out I think Ukraine will be a great free country. If anything this war will mean Ukraine will never be controlled by Russia again - even if Putin "wins" on the ground today.
 
Guys I have a question about this war. We all want Ukraine to win, but do we really want Russia to lose. Lose has badly has it appears they might. For all the hand wringing we did about the possibility some middle-eastern dictator with a twisted world view, a propaganda blinded nation behind him, and a bad attitude might get his hands on a nuke. Well Putin is all of those things except he is not Arab and he has about 25000 nukes and has already used WMD in Syria. If he loses and loses badly as it looks like he might but hangs on domestically what then. What can he be given in a piece agreement he could not win on the battlefield? I doubt a pledge Ukraine will not join NATO is going to be a big enough "win" for the price paid. Worse what if he loses patience with at amount of time it takes arty to level Ukrainian cities and decides to go nuclear. Say on the U.S. model to end ww2 and just nukes to cites and threatens to level 1 more every week he does not have a Ukrainian surrender. We do not want to directly confront him now will we BECAUSE he has nukes it is reasonable to assume that if he uses nukes "to bring this cruel war to an end" we might be even less willing to confront him. Also he has to know given his county's history he as backed himself into a win or die corner. So as long he has to keep his homefront focused on a foreign enemy or he will become a domestic enemy that will get a fast trial and a faster bullet thru the back of his head and with 1/3 of his military buried in mass Ukrainian graves it might make the nuke option the only one he has. I grew up hearing how lucky we were it was the Russians we were against in the cold war because at least they were smart/sane enough to push things into an actual war that neither side could win anything more than a pile or radiated ash to try to rebuild their country on... Does Putin with his back against a wall seem SANE !!!!!! to anybody???

So the way I see it possible outcomes are...
1- russia wins..... unacceptable
2- russia loses.... starts ww3.... unacceptable
3- russia loses .... putin removed from power from the inside...... maybe fingers crossed
4- last 2 plus years have been a night and i am about to wake up and find out it is Jan 1. 2020... and none of this bullshit really happened.............. YES PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE LET THIS HAPPEN
 
Ive said this for years. We have nothing to gain from an unstable Russia or Putin. There need to be backdoors he can exit without losing too much face.
 
yes ..... do those doors exist??? i dont think a no nato promise is going to be enough to cover the price paid.......... and given how things are going what more would ukraine be willing to give???
 
Well sanctions are inherently evil. They need to stop. The russian people should not suffer (not any people). It means we are trusting the common folks of Russia to overturn their president. Not the way to go IMO. It could turn the nuclear arsenal to local warlords that would pop up.
 
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Nemesis said:
Pretty poor performance by Russia so far. Looks like this is still a conscript army and reforms have not fully taken hold.

I am interested to see what conclusions our NATO allies will draw from this.

Germany said early that it would increase defense spending.

But with Russia's poor performance, I wonder what NATO allies will ultimately do.
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They will probably scale back their military after seeing the Russian performance
 
Wastetoid said:
Estonia should march on Moscow now. Conquer Russia.
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Doubtful. They are already asking for a substantial amount to increase military spending here in Norway and we got the best defensive terrain possible.
 
olaf said:
Doubtful. They are already asking for a substantial amount to increase military spending here in Norway and we got the best defensive terrain possible.
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I was joking but with Russia committing 80% of its forces in Ukraine it leaves them wide open.
 
F.Y.I.

As of February 28th, the following is a brief summary of the monetary & material assistance that countries supporting Ukraine in this conflict have provided thus far. This summary does not include any new deployments or repositioning of additional NATO resources in any nearby member states.

US
Washington is sending an extra $350 million in military aid to Kyiv to bring its total support to more than a billion dollars over the last year.

European Union
For the first time in its history, the EU is financing the purchase and delivery of arms after leaders agree to transport weapons worth 450 million euros to Kyiv.
Foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says some nations are sending the Ukrainians fighter jets.

Canada
Canada is sending lethal military weaponry and loaning Kyiv half-a-billion Canadian dollars ($392 million, 350 500 million euros) to help it defend itself.

Germany
Berlin has broken a longstanding taboo of not exporting arms to conflict zones in vowing to send Ukraine 1,000 anti-tank weapons, 500 "Stinger" surface-to-air missiles and nine howitzers.
It is also donating 14 armoured vehicles and 10 000 tonnes of fuel.

Sweden, Norway and Denmark
Stockholm is also breaking its historic neutral stance to send 5 000 anti-tank rockets to Ukraine, with Denmark contributing a further 2 700. Neighbours Norway are sending helmets and body armour.

France
France has sent anti-aircraft and digital weapons, as well as fuel.

UK
London says it will "provide further UK support to Ukraine", without specifying what it might be.

Belgium
Belgium says it will supply Ukraine with 3 000 more automatic rifles and 200 anti-tank weapons, as well as 3 800 tons of fuel.

Netherlands
The Dutch defence ministry says it is sending "200 Stinger missiles as soon as possible" as well as sniper rifles and helmets.

Czech Republic
Prague is sending 4 000 mortars and an arsenal of 30 000 pistols, 7 000 assault rifles, 3 000 machine guns and a million bullets.

Croatia
Zagreb will dispatch 16 million euros' worth of small arms and body armour.

Portugal
Portugal is giving Ukraine night-vision goggles, bullet-proof vests, helmets, grenades, ammunition and automatic G3 rifles.

Greece
Athens is sending "defence equipment". Greece has a large community in Ukraine, including 10 citizens who have been killed and many more who are in the firing line.

Romania
Romania, which shares a border with Ukraine, is offering to treat the wounded in its 11 military hospitals. Bucharest is also sending fuel, bulletproof vests, helmets and other "military material" worth three million euros.

Italy
Rome has sent 110 million euros in immediate aid to the Ukrainian government as "a concrete sign of our support".

US
Washington announced $54 million in new humanitarian aid for Ukraine to be spent through NGOs, with London adding 40 million ($54 million, 48 million euros).

France and Germany
France has sent 33 tonnes of aid to refugees in Poland. Another 33 tonnes is destined for Moldova. Berlin is giving 16 million euros to aid refugees.

Norway, Netherlands and Denmark
The Dutch and Danish governments are sending 20 million euros each in humanitarian aid, with Oslo adding a similar sum.

Spain
Madrid has promised to send 20 tonnes of aid to Ukraine, mostly medical and defensive equipment such as bulletproof vests.

Israel and Ireland
Israel says it is sending 100 tonnes of humanitarian aid, with Ireland contributing 10 million euros in aid for refugees, as well as medical supplies.

Turkey and Greece
Turkey's disaster relief agency is sending three lorries of aid to Moldova for Ukrainian refugees. The Red Crescent is sending help to people fleeing into
Romania.
Greece is sending a shipment of humanitarian aid through Poland.

Source: News24 - South Africa dated, 2022-03-22

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Congress approved $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine on Thursday as part of a $1.5 trillion spending bill that funds U.S. government operations through Sept. 30. President Joe Biden is expected to sign it into law on Friday. The bill includes $13.6 billion for ammunition and other military supplies for Ukraine to fight the invasion by Russia, as well as humanitarian support.

Source: Reuters via Yahoo News dated, 2022-03-11

One thing for sure, whatever the final outcome of this conflict, the M.I.C. is ultimately going to be the big winner coming out of all this.

Cheers!
 
olaf said:
This explores the what ifs of a Russia collapse:
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That escalated quickly to a pretty fanciful place. Poland invading neighbouring countries with NATO backing? Turkey invading from the sought and fighting with Iran over Russian territory? Entire armies working inside Russia trying to secure nuclear war heads? That's just silly. Well Turnkey might be a little unpredictable :) but even then an invasion - no way.

Paranoid much?
 
Shady Side said:
3- russia loses .... putin removed from power from the inside...... maybe fingers crossed
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Let's hope for this one. I mean #4 would be great but sorry man we are not dreaming :)

Don't forget if Putin is removed his replacement will not be some weakling or democracy loving person. I would expect a replacement to save face by blaming Putin and quickly hunker down to protect their power with some pretty significant shows of force from the security apparatus - against opposition I mean. About the only chipping away we will likely see are quests to return the territory that Putin took from others.
 
At the rate the Fed is printing money a stick of gum will cost $40. The US is broke we don't have money to fix our own house let alone keep sending billions out to other countries. The world is salting its own fields to try and stop PootyPoot.
 
Septic Limb said:
At the rate the Fed is printing money a stick of gum will cost $40. The US is broke we don't have money to fix our own house let alone keep sending billions out to other countries. The world is salting its own fields to try and stop PootyPoot.
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Your observation regarding "The world is salting its own fields..." is particularly apt in that Russia, Belarus & China together accounted for 29.6% of the worlds fertilizer exports in 2020 of which potash is a major component. And also of note, these countries also rank 2nd 3rd & 4th respectively in potash production. (Canada ranks 1st in potash production).

So given that China is the world's largest consumer of potash fertilizer, accounting for approximately 20 percent of world potash consumption, and the fact China’s domestic demand for potash fertilizer is now overtaking its own homegrown potash supply, making the country reliant on potash imports.

And seeing as how Russia & Belarus are either unlikely, or more to the point with largely Western sanctions in place, unable to export potash (except to China perhaps). It is not unreasonable to suspect that primary food crops (wheat, barley, oats etc) in many major food producing nations around the world are going to be negatively impacted insofar as crop yields in the near term as a consequence.

Add to this the continuing droughts being experienced in other important food producing regions around the world, and the seeds (pun unintentional) are being planted for wide spread political instability & conflict due to food scarcity & high prices to be an emerging reality in many countries for the foreseeable future.

Cheers!
 

According to The Guardian, the surviving members of The Clash have given their blessing to the Ukrainian punk band, Beton, to record a new version of their 1979 classic London Calling. Recorded near the frontline of the battle in Ukraine, Kyiv Calling (above) “has lyrics that call upon the rest of the world to support the defence of the country from Russian invaders. All proceeds of what is now billed as a ‘war anthem’ will go to the Free Ukraine Resistance Movement (FURM) to help fund a shared communications system that will alert the population to threats and lobby for international support.”
 
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