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Assessing the Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine (so far)

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Here is an interesting video of some of the Russian soldiers/families who are tired of the war. I think I read somewhere they are called refusniks? I feel bad for these guys.

 
Instead of feeling bad about the fate of contract soldiers refusing to follow orders, you should feel bad about all the Ukrainian conscripts. Some of the reserve units being brought up to the front line appear to be manned by 45-50 year old men, who haven't seen military service for roughly 30 years.
 
Aurelius said:
So - assuming someone was Russian, based on the way they write, and then based on that assumption (which is in no way verified) accusing someone is pro-Russian and bashing him with rumors, anecdotes and unsubstantiated claims - is considered to be pushback? That is amusing.

And since I made a long sentence with a weird structure - am I now viable to be considered a Russian?
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First stop lying. Second, for the record
1. I stated fact - @Bones26 the guy who is pretending to be Canadian is in fact Russian (that is cold hard fact - no one except Russian-native can write such convoluted sentences following Russian rules. Full stop. If you do not like it, it does not mean it is not fact.) I asked him to openly admit that he is Russian and explain why he is pretending to be someone else (while posting RU propaganda video)
2. I stated fact - videos @Bones26 post are in fact blatant RU propaganda.
3. Neither you, nor @Bones26 refuted any of my facts. Non
4. Instead, you started to scream that it is propaganda, and the thread needs to be locked
5. I confronted you asking either to prove I am lying or admit that it is truth
6. You immediately run away
No, you are not an adult, and no, you cannot accept anything that threatens your internal world. That is cold hard fact from your behavior I described above.

Aurelius said:
What bothers me is the ridiculous assumptions being made. Posting HistoryLegends is not anti-Ukrainian or pro-Russian. The channel itself is critical only of the reporting on the war, which at times has no connections with the reality. Similar trends of fantastical thinking exist on pro-Russian side, as well.
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Stop lying. As I showed with facts HistoryLegends bias is deep into RU territory. So deep that it is pure propaganda. He lied what RU declared before the operation. He lied about LS attitude toward RU. He lied about abandoning SD and LS. The whole time I watched him he did not said any objective fact. Nothing.

Now back to topic. Based on Girkin assessment (and few pieces from other RU guy) I prepared map of what is happening in last 24 hours in Donbass area, during so called 3rd Phase of RU operation. Let's he how it goes.
pevdrd.png
 
Below is a copied post from Haiduk at the BFC forums. This shows that not only do Russian HQs get hit but sometimes Ukrainian HQs also. Ukrainian Heroes. Slava Ukraini !!

23th of July became the black day for 28th mech,brigade. In result of Russian missile strike on Mykolaiv, brigade HQ was hit. Commander of the brigade, colonel Vitaliy Huliayev and three lt.colonels Oleksandr Dayneko, Valentyn Serhiyenko, Vitaliy Bonderev were killed.

On the photo - colonel Vitalyi Huliayev.

W2C1unjh.jpg
 
Aurelius said:
Instead of feeling bad about the fate of contract soldiers refusing to follow orders, you should feel bad about all the Ukrainian conscripts. Some of the reserve units being brought up to the front line appear to be manned by 45-50 year old men, who haven't seen military service for roughly 30 years.
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Are you going to feel bad about these RU old men?
 
Aurelius said:
Instead of feeling bad about the fate of contract soldiers refusing to follow orders, you should feel bad about all the Ukrainian conscripts. Some of the reserve units being brought up to the front line appear to be manned by 45-50 year old men, who haven't seen military service for roughly 30 years.
Click to expand...
I do feel bad for the Ukrainians who are forced, by the Russian initiated war, to go and defend their nation. Most would probably prefer to be at home with their families. It was uncomfortable sleeping in a foxhole at 18 YOA during peace time training. It's hard to imagine sleeping in a foxhole at 45 - 50 YOA during a real war. No doubt.
 
Grigb said:
First stop lying. Second, for the record
1. I stated fact - @Bones26 the guy who is pretending to be Canadian is in fact Russian (that is cold hard fact - no one except Russian-native can write such convoluted sentences following Russian rules. Full stop. If you do not like it, it does not mean it is not fact.) I asked him to openly admit that he is Russian and explain why he is pretending to be someone else (while posting RU propaganda video)
2. I stated fact - videos @Bones26 post are in fact blatant RU propaganda.
3. Neither you, nor @Bones26 refuted any of my facts. Non
4. Instead, you started to scream that it is propaganda, and the thread needs to be locked
5. I confronted you asking either to prove I am lying or admit that it is truth
6. You immediately run away
No, you are not an adult, and no, you cannot accept anything that threatens your internal world. That is cold hard fact from your behavior I described above.


Stop lying. As I showed with facts HistoryLegends bias is deep into RU territory. So deep that it is pure propaganda. He lied what RU declared before the operation. He lied about LS attitude toward RU. He lied about abandoning SD and LS. The whole time I watched him he did not said any objective fact. Nothing.

Now back to topic. Based on Girkin assessment (and few pieces from other RU guy) I prepared map of what is happening in last 24 hours in Donbass area, during so called 3rd Phase of RU operation. Let's he how it goes.
pevdrd.png
Click to expand...
That's some interesting information. Thanks for the post. For those who do not know who Girken is I copied part of a Wiki and included the link below.

Girkin is a former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, and later the war in Donbas as an organizer of militant groups in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).[2][3][4] Girkin led a group of militants into Ukraine where he participated in the 2014 Siege of Sloviansk. During the battle he increased his influence and ultimately became the de facto military commander of all separatist forces in the Donbas region, which was confirmed by the "prime minister" Alexander Borodai of the DPR who appointed him as official Defense Minister.

en.wikipedia.org

Igor Girkin - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
He also lost Slavyansk, proposed that militias pull back beyond Donetsk and Lugansk line, closer to the border. He is no longer affiliated with any decision making structure, and is mostly shunned.
 
Aurelius said:
No, they are volunteers.
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Nope, they are smart ones who choose where to enlist to avoid being drafted by Mobilization. When mobilizing they are not going to ask you anything - RU nationalist are telling that it is better to enlist now than to wait mobilization. Also, what about LDNR old, mobilized men?
 
Ok guys... I dont mind discussions surrounding the current conflict however I expect you to behave like adults and I draw the line in the sand at personal attacks and accusations.

So go ahead discuss both sides of the conflict... but get involved in any more crap slinging and I will just ban the ass of anyone who oversteps that line in the sand and brings disharmony to our/my website. And honestly... thats not even a threat... Im too old to have to deal with this shit.
 
Aurelius said:
He also lost Slavyansk, proposed that militias pull back beyond Donetsk and Lugansk line, closer to the border. He is no longer affiliated with any decision making structure, and is mostly shunned.
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In your imagination maybe. You are a liar who knows nothing. Small quote regarding situation in Slyvansk (do not have time to do full translation).
It is known that the militia had two "Nones" [122mm SPG], the Czech and Givi, as the most powerful and mobile artillery means. Without them, it was almost impossible to hold or repel roadblocks or any other positions around the city. Without the regular supply of ammunition for these guns, there was no chance of somehow fighting outside the urban areas. And at the most critical moment, a convoy comes to Slavyansk from the "Mainland" [RU] along the "Road of Life", including with shells for "Nons". People are cheking, and there - yes, shells, that's just not the right ones at all. Tank or something else. But definitely not for the 120-mm self-propelled gun 2S9 "Nona". That's what I actually wanted to ask Strelkov [Girkin] about - what arrived and what role the lack of ammunition for the "Non" played in the surrender of the city. And Igor Ivanovich told me. Sorry, but I can't do without a separate paragraph in bold.

At the most critical moment, instead of ammunition for "Non", shells for 122-mm D-30 howitzers were sent to Slavyansk, of which the militia in Slavyansk did not have any.

The D-30s were only at Zakharchenko's, in Donetsk. And more or less serious artillery of Slyvansk defenders at this moment has finished . There were only two tanks left with a ridiculous number of shots. It was impossible to recapture and hold positions in the area of Nikolaevka without artillery.
Naturally, sabotage with the supply of ammunition for "Non" was not the only reason for the exit. There were several events and factors that influenced this moment.
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Regarding Girkin he is not shunned by anybody except RU government propagandists. He is an experienced military counter-intelligent officer who personally knows significant number of men fighting in both LDNR and RU army from both Chechnia wars and LDNR pre-22 years.
 
Aurelius said:
He also lost Slavyansk, proposed that militias pull back beyond Donetsk and Lugansk line, closer to the border. He is no longer affiliated with any decision making structure, and is mostly shunned.
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Yes, I understand he is currently not part of the Russian government. However, he is a self-described Russian nationalist with a former leadership background in the Donbas area, Intelligence, etc. As such he has a very unique and interesting perspective. Understandably, as a Russian nationalist, he has a very strong bias in favor of all things Russian. He is not against the war but instead against the way it has been conducted (the Russian retreat from Kyiv etc.). He has no love for Ukraine or the West and is calling for a general mobilization of Russia to fight the war.

So when a Russian nationalist, with his background, has criticism of the conduct of the Russian war I think it is worth listening to. :)
 
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Sometimes the simple answer is best.
Nazi is bad.
Nazi supporter is bad.
Put both against the wall and shoot.
Done and dusted.

I visit my Grand Father's grave at the National Cemetery (Service members and their spouses/dependent children only) just about every Sunday morning. I wonder how many would turn in their graves if they knew we are even remotely supporting Nazis.
 
Again its not that simple in my opinion.

Ukraine has a population of 44 million, the Azov Regiment had between 1000 - 2500 members - not exactly representative of the nation.

The US military probably has more far right extremists amongst its ranks than the numbers involved with Azov albeit they dont fight under Nazi symbology and the British military has its share of nutcases too.

As for the veterans turning in their graves about the support of a Nazi regiment thats another hard one... they might like to see Western finances being used to slap down the 'Commies'?

But hey I dont know... I just think wars are never really cut and dried and for sure their is a load of propoganda being forced down our throats from all sides.

I tell you what thought... the war is being used as an excuse for a lot of cost hikes that are impacting us all.
 
Callsign Strelkov is not as important as he has been made himself appear. He has been relegated to blogosphere, alongside various Sakers and Yuri Podolyakas.

I follow several telegram channels, I try to watch Western and Ukrainian reports as well - not much success there, since I see through the pattern of reporting. Still, you can find some journalism and actual reporting there.

If I had to single out any source of information, then it is going to be Dejan Berić - Deki, the DNR sniper. He is a Major in special forces of the DNR, he has connections with their intelligence apparatus, as well as with Russian security services. He speaks openly about the situation, praising success and criticizing failures. He has spent time behind the lines in Ukraine, now he is training others. Mid-February he said that situation took a turn for the worse, and that large scale combat is inevitable.

I personally expected the war to start sometimes in April 2021, since there was a similar build-up of forces on all the sides.
 
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