Assessing the Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine (so far)
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Pro-Z commentators are going nuts over Snake Island.
Latest observations for your evaluation.
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Very good podcast episode listen -- very sober and balanced analysis.
Dr Jack Watling talks to Peter as he returns from his most recent trip to Ukraine. As both Ukrainian and Russian forces reorganise for the next phase, the conflict is poised at a critical moment: one dependent on stockpiles, logistics, resupply, people, leadership and styles of fighting. Whilst Jack brings his latest insights to the listeners, he and Peter have a discussion over the information war and debunk some of the myths and fallacies around the public face of the war. Jack also highlights some of the lessons emerging from the conflict that are likely to endure and apply across other wars. Sobering stuff.
This Means War: A Turning Point in Ukraine? on Apple Podcasts
Show This Means War, Ep A Turning Point in Ukraine? - 30 Jun 2022
podcasts.apple.com
Dr Jack Watling talks to Peter as he returns from his most recent trip to Ukraine. As both Ukrainian and Russian forces reorganise for the next phase, the conflict is poised at a critical moment: one dependent on stockpiles, logistics, resupply, people, leadership and styles of fighting. Whilst Jack brings his latest insights to the listeners, he and Peter have a discussion over the information war and debunk some of the myths and fallacies around the public face of the war. Jack also highlights some of the lessons emerging from the conflict that are likely to endure and apply across other wars. Sobering stuff.
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That was quite good. I liked the bit about lessons other armies can learn from this already: have stockpiles of the ammo you need, have the capability to manufacture the ammo you need yourself, with UAVs living for a week at most on the battlefield small numbers of fancy whizzbang drones is not the way to go you need lots more cheap ones and NATO needs to do better at standardizing their artillery ammo.
Agreed, it was an excellent listen, and a very clear annunciation of the challenges of the differing stages of the war.
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Latest observations for your consideration:
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His reporting has a ring of truth to it missing from other sources I've watched, don't you think? 
@mTkHis reporting has a ring of truth to it missing from other sources I've watched, don't you think?
For my part, one of the reasons I have chosen to post his videos is overall I have found him to be pretty balanced with his summaries, and when going back and comparing his previous video analysis & projections with what then actually transpired in subsequent events on the ground, I found that he has a pretty decent track record for accuracy. Ditto for when it comes to logically breaking down the claims being made by either side, or explaining the ebbs and flows of the conflict thus far and possible next actions likely to be exploited by both sides, I find very little exaggeration or wishful thinking in his comments.
Another reason I found is that he is generally pretty well ahead of the MSM when it comes to providing a view of the SMO across the whole the front. The MSM in my opinion with its inherent bias front and center tends both to lag in its reporting of developments and to often focuses its reporting on a single or isolated action with the unstated implication that that action is indicative of the state of the conflict across the whole front.
Also since I have the time, I like to touch base with several other independent channels that also report of the conflict and with other major MSM news sources from around the world taking into account that they each come with their own biases as well, just so as to get an overall 'feel' from all sides for how things are being framed and reported on and in my experience nothing he has commented on has been contradicted by eventual actual developments on the ground or in the political sphere. So take for what its worth, to each his own and as I like to add, your mileage may vary.
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A post by an officer trainer that discusses how to assess the effectiveness of actions take in conflict with examples from the Russian invasion of Ukraine: https://community.battlefront.com/t...-ukraine-gonna-get/page/1074/#comment-1939687
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Below is a link to an interesting article about the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. I quoted a few interesting parts below.
The Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.
As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base.
Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy
Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling,
The Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.
As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base.
Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy
Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling,
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow
papers.ssrn.com
Below is a link to an interesting article about the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. I quoted a few interesting parts below.
The Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.
As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base.
Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy
Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling,
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehowpapers.ssrn.com
In the spirit of full disclosure;
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, who is the the lead author of this article is also the founder of Chief Executive Leadership Institute (CELI). Sonnenfeld's CEO summits have drawn leaders from business, government, public policy, nonprofits, NGOs, and higher education.
Past attendees have included Stephen Schwarzman, Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, Ray Dalio, Ashton Carter, Elaine Chao, Maurice Greenberg, Dina Powell, Robert Hormats, Carla Hills, Farooq Kathwari, John Bogle, John Whitehead, Albert Gordon, Jeffrey Bewkes, Randall Stephenson, David Shulkin, Wilbur Ross, Steven Mnuchin, Anthony Scaramucci, Peter Orszag, John Negroponte, Chris Shays, Indra Nooyi, Kevin Rudd, Steven Mnuchin, Ken Langone, David Solomon, Peter Navarro, Bob Woodward, Roland Betts, Peter Salovey, Danny Meyer, Brian Duperreault, Joanne Lipman, Jeff Zucker, Stefano Pessina, Dennis Muilenburg, Alex Gorsky, David Abney, Robert Lighthizer, Jared Kushner, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Richard Blumenthal, Gina Raimondo, Janet Yellen, Larry Bacow and many other influential leaders from across sectors. (Source: Wikipedia)
And from an article published by the DailyWire
"When the leaders of 100 corporations convened to plot an intervention in the voting laws of states, it was the result of a campaign by Ivy League academics and international-minded plutocrats that began long before Georgia lawmakers passed their Election Integrity Act.
The April 10 conference call, in which CEOs of multinational companies mocked Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s warning that corporations should stay out of politics, was organized by three groups — the Coalition for Inclusive Capitalism, the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, and the Leadership Now Project — which have corralled private-sector CEOs to advance their political and economic agendas." (Source: The Daily Wire)
And...
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An interesting take on the evolution of the Ukrainian Army and its possible impact on the conduct of the fighting.
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In the spirit of full disclosure;
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, who is the the lead author of this article is also the founder of Chief Executive Leadership Institute (CELI). Sonnenfeld's CEO summits have drawn leaders from business, government, public policy, nonprofits, NGOs, and higher education.
Past attendees have included Stephen Schwarzman, Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, Ray Dalio, Ashton Carter, Elaine Chao, Maurice Greenberg, Dina Powell, Robert Hormats, Carla Hills, Farooq Kathwari, John Bogle, John Whitehead, Albert Gordon, Jeffrey Bewkes, Randall Stephenson, David Shulkin, Wilbur Ross, Steven Mnuchin, Anthony Scaramucci, Peter Orszag, John Negroponte, Chris Shays, Indra Nooyi, Kevin Rudd, Steven Mnuchin, Ken Langone, David Solomon, Peter Navarro, Bob Woodward, Roland Betts, Peter Salovey, Danny Meyer, Brian Duperreault, Joanne Lipman, Jeff Zucker, Stefano Pessina, Dennis Muilenburg, Alex Gorsky, David Abney, Robert Lighthizer, Jared Kushner, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Richard Blumenthal, Gina Raimondo, Janet Yellen, Larry Bacow and many other influential leaders from across sectors. (Source: Wikipedia)
And from an article published by the DailyWire
"When the leaders of 100 corporations convened to plot an intervention in the voting laws of states, it was the result of a campaign by Ivy League academics and international-minded plutocrats that began long before Georgia lawmakers passed their Election Integrity Act.
The April 10 conference call, in which CEOs of multinational companies mocked Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s warning that corporations should stay out of politics, was organized by three groups — the Coalition for Inclusive Capitalism, the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute, and the Leadership Now Project — which have corralled private-sector CEOs to advance their political and economic agendas." (Source: The Daily Wire)
And...
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Nothing to refute the original linked article. Why all the conspiracy theory stuff? To detract from the article? I also notice you refer to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a Special Military Operation (SMO). Supporters of Russia often use that phrase. After going back and reading many of your posts I suspect you have motives far removed from "the spirit of full disclosure". I don't mind so much that you support Russia. Many people do for various reasons. What are your reasons for supporting the Russian Federation in this war against Ukraine? I bet that is a much more interesting and compelling story. I would honestly like to hear it.
In the "spirit of full disclosure" I have no connection to Ukraine or the Russian Federation. In the beginning I was a mostly neutral (but very interested) follower of the situation. After learning of the many Russian atrocities in Bucha and other places I must admit I do not support Russia. Slava Ukraini!
So again nothing to refute the original linked article.
Such as:
The Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked,
Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base.
Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls,
Plus all the other information that was in the linked article.
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow
papers.ssrn.com
Cheers !
Nothing to refute the original linked article. Why all the conspiracy theory stuff? To detract from the article? I also notice you refer to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a Special Military Operation (SMO). Supporters of Russia often use that phrase. After going back and reading many of your posts I suspect you have motives far removed from "the spirit of full disclosure". I don't mind so much that you support Russia. Many people do for various reasons. What are your reasons for supporting the Russian Federation in this war against Ukraine? I bet that is a much more interesting and compelling story. I would honestly like to hear it.
In the "spirit of full disclosure" I have no connection to Ukraine or the Russian Federation. In the beginning I was a mostly neutral (but very interested) follower of the situation. After learning of the many Russian atrocities in Bucha and other places I must admit I do not support Russia. Slava Ukraini!
So again nothing to refute the original linked article.
Such as:
The Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked,
Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base.
Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls,
Plus all the other information that was in the linked article.
Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehowpapers.ssrn.com
Cheers !
@MOS:96B2P
As laid out in the first paragraphs of the article in question, the reader is being asked to uncritically to accept the contention that;
“Since the invasion, the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin.
And instead to consider the following construct as a more trustworthy counter-narrative;
“Our team of experts, using private Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia’s international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia’s economic outlook.”
All this without any background detail whatsoever about who Jeffery Sonnenfeld is, what are his credentials to qualify him as an expert on the matter, or any information at all about any of his past & current associations, present business / institutional interests, and past or current interactions with any of the parties that may be either directly or indirectly involved in this conflict.
That by providing some missing context regarding Mr. Sonnenfeld’s public record in this regard should be categorized as a conspiracy theory frankly in my opinion is an insult to the intelligence and critical thinking ability of the reader to make up their own mind regarding the pertinence of that additional context in their own evaluation of the analyses & potential bias being presented.
Furthermore, it would seem that you appear to start with the premise that it was my intent was to refute the article, yet in my posting I offered no opinion one way or another on the validity of the analysis provided, or with respect to Mr. Sonnenfeld associations which, I again repeat, is part of the public record. This deliberate choice being based on the assumption that any interested reader engaged enough to wade through this document is also quite capable to come to their own opinion as to its conclusions.
Insofar as my use of “SMO”, it is not all that unheard of to see instances of this description used within the MSM in describing Russia’s actions and a perfunctory Google search will provide adequate evidence of that. However, given as it appears to be a trigger of sorts, going forward I will try to be more diligent in enclosing it in quotes to assuage any concerns of any inherent bias.
Finally, I have always endeavored to the best of my ability and as requested by this site, to keep religion and politics out of my postings and to attempt to engage in friendly discussions on matters such as this. And yet you none-the-less feel free without providing any evidence in support of your assertions to defame my character, question my motives and make unfounded accusations implying my approval for Russia’s actions. This despite my posting back on May 2nd, the following: “So may I humbly suggest that it would be best for all us to dissuade ourselves from believing there are any good or moral actors involved in this current conflict, other than those unfortunate civilians caught in its maws. Be it Russia, NATO, the U.S. or Ukraine, they all share in the genesis of & continuation of this tragedy.” I would have hoped for better.
To conclude please allow me to paraphrase a recent statement issued by the American journalist Glen Greenwald who put it far more succinctly than I possibly could, upon being advised that Government of Ukraine, has just asked the U.S. to censor him. (In addition to Greenwald, they have also asked that elected sitting Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, former U.S. Congresswoman, Presidential Candidate and active Lieutenant-Colonel of the U.S. Army Reserve Tulsi Gabbard, retired U.S. Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor and political scientist and international relations scholar John Mearsheimer amongst many other American and Foreign Nationals all be censored as well).
“It takes extreme audacity for Zelensky to go around the world demanding other nations send massive amounts of weapons and money to him, then try suppress dissent in our countries by smearing journalists and citizens who question.”
“War proponents in the West and other functionaries of Western security state agencies have used the same tactics for decades to demonize anyone questioning the foreign policy of the US and NATO. Chief among them, going back to the start of the Cold War, is accusing any dissidents of spreading “Russian propaganda” or otherwise serving the Kremlin. That’s all this is from the Ukrainians: just standard McCarthyite idiocy.
“The Ukrainians have the absolute right to pursue whatever war policies they want. But when they start demanding that my country and my government use its resources to fuel their war effort, then I, along with all other Americans, have the absolute right to question that policy or to point out its dangers and risks. I don’t care at all about Ukraine’s attempts to shut down debate in our country by smearing journalists and politicians who are questioning US/NATO policy as being Russian propagandists. That tactic is as inconsequential as it is cheap, tawdry, and discredited.”
“The Ukrainian government, in the name of this war, has all but ended core civil liberties for its citizenry, banning opposition parties, imprisoning dissidents, and closing media outlets that question the President. Observing the grave dangers of a proxy war involving two nations with the largest nuclear stockpiles, ones with a history of coming very close to annihilating the planet, does not require Kremlin messaging, it only requires the most basic common sense and moral compass.”
Cheers!
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On a positive note I like your other topic on this forum where you post links to different websites about the military situation around the world. Those links seem to be a fair representation of what is going on in the world and does not seem to be biased. However, here in this thread, the stuff you post is almost all pro-Russian (maybe all?). I don't have a problem with a pro-Russian forum poster. I think it is interesting and we could use more of them. Its kind of boring to have everybody of the exact same opinion all the time.
My issue is when somebody pretends to be a fair arbitrator of the facts but almost exclusively makes posts, excuses, whataboutism, etc. favoring one side. I think its okay to have an opinion and even pick a side but be open and honest about it. I admit I'm biased against Russia. After seeing the photos, videos and interviews of the various Russian war crimes & atrocities in Bucha and other places I support Ukraine. Just be honest. Its generally easier anyways.
I don't mind that you refer to the Russian / Ukraine WAR as a Special Military Operation (SMO). That's what the Russians and many of their supporters call it. In fact, I think people living in Russia, get in trouble for calling the Russian invasion a war. You live in Canada so you should be okay referring to it as a war if you wanted to. Maybe you actually do think it is a SMO and not a war. Good for you. Your entitled to your opinion. I was just pointing out that the use of that phrase was another indicator, along with the totality of your posts in this thread, that you are pro-Russian. As opposed to a fair arbitrator of the facts.
You pointed out that you made the below statement:
“So may I humbly suggest that it would be best for all us to dissuade ourselves from believing there are any good or moral actors involved in this current conflict, other than those unfortunate civilians caught in its maws. Be it Russia, NATO, the U.S. or Ukraine, they all share in the genesis of & continuation of this tragedy.”
After seeing the photos, videos and interviews of the various Russian war crimes & atrocities in Bucha and other places I do think there are good and bad actors in this WAR. The Russians committed atrocities against those unfortunate civilians caught in the maws of the Russian WAR. Its also notable that you said NATO & the US are not good or moral actors in this. I think it is good they, to include your country of Canada, are helping Ukraine to fight back against Russia. If the Ukrainians had not been able to defeat the Russians at the outskirts of Kyiv and push them back past Bucha we would not know as much about the Russian war crimes & atrocities committed in Bucha.
Then, you can't help yourself and you pile on the anti-Ukraine, anti-NATO, anti-Zelensky, anti-US talking points in your above post. You Sir, are not a fair arbitrator of the facts. Where are your pages of posts condemning Russian war crimes & atrocities in Bucha and other places? How about just condemning Russia's WAR against Ukraine?
I think it would be easier and more transparent if you admitted that you are an obvious supporter of the Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine. I would be happy to discuss said operation with you.
Cheers !
G
Grigb
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Hi! @Bones26! It is nice to meet fellow Russian! Nice pro-RU videos of HistoryLegends you post. I am still watching the heavily pro-ru video regarding Lysichansk.
Still good to say hi to fellow RU Bro! Just wanted to ask why are you hiding your RU roots? Yes, Bro, I know your profile says you are from Eastern Townships, Quebec, Canada.
But look at your writing:
Maybe you are ashamed you are writing from Russia? No shame Bro, because it is better to be honest. I mean RU immigrants take English lessons because you cannot write so convoluted in English speaking business correspondence. I know, Bro, because I did it. Wrote whole texts like you. Wasnt' fun. Had to take English 101 despite my rather high (for RU) level. KISS Principle, Bro, RU teachers forgot to explain it to you. I know because they forgot to explain it to me too.
Look at this beauty:
Anyway, glad to see you here, RU Bro!
Still good to say hi to fellow RU Bro! Just wanted to ask why are you hiding your RU roots? Yes, Bro, I know your profile says you are from Eastern Townships, Quebec, Canada.
But look at your writing:
This long-convoluted paragraph-like sentence is typical for an average native Russian-speaker. I know because I am native Russian-speaker. This is one of the main RU problems when learning English language:
Maybe you are ashamed you are writing from Russia? No shame Bro, because it is better to be honest. I mean RU immigrants take English lessons because you cannot write so convoluted in English speaking business correspondence. I know, Bro, because I did it. Wrote whole texts like you. Wasnt' fun. Had to take English 101 despite my rather high (for RU) level. KISS Principle, Bro, RU teachers forgot to explain it to you. I know because they forgot to explain it to me too.
Look at this beauty:
It is literally how we, Russians, write in Russian and in English after studying English only in Russia and staying in Russia. I do not know why you want to hide this fact.
Anyway, glad to see you here, RU Bro!
@Grigb
Never argue with an idiot, they will bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. - Mark Twain
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