Assessing the Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine (so far)

[StickerEater]

I was against sending Ukraine non-lethal aid back in 2014/15. I believed that it would just help drag out the civil war they where fighting and after eight years I would say that I was correct. I became very upset when in early 2021 the US quietly switched from non-lethal to lethal aid shipments to Ukraine. The war between Donbass and Ukraine had ground down to an established frontline with just heavy skirmishes. Lethal aid shipments allowed the Ukraine to build up for an offensive which would ramp the war up again. I have already covered the majority of my position earlier so I'm not going to repeat it again.

"Russia attacks its smaller neighbor." lacks so much content and makes it extremely misleading. Yes they attacked but it wasn't because they happened to be bored that day.

Always question what the American government is doing. Especially when the big players of the Senate and House have heavy business ties to the area.

If someone is arming and equipping your opposition and they stick their face within reach, wouldn't you hit it as hard as you could?

After twenty years of war I, as a tax paying American citizen, would be happy if we sat this one out. Let someone else play world police and savior.

I completely disagree with this statement. The U.S isn't getting involved because a few politicians would lose a bunch of money if they didn't, they are getting involved because a sovereign nation is being invaded by another nation. Not supporting Ukraine would go against everything that the United States stands for. How can we claim to be the free-est country in the world if we aren't even willing to send food and water to a country fighting for its own democracy?

I do however agree that the U.S. cannot be the world's police force. I think that pulling out of Afghanistan was the correct decision, although I wholeheartedly do not agree with how it was done. However, sending Javelins and Stingers is completely different than putting actual boots on the ground, and it is the most the U.S can do without risking a third world war.

 

[Bones26]

For your consideration:

At least 15 lawmakers who shape US defense policy have investments in military contractors​

At least 15 lawmakers who shape US defense policy have investments in military contractors

The lawmakers serve on the House Armed Services Committee and the Senate Armed Services Committee.

www.businessinsider.com

Since the year 2000 there have been some 16 invasions of another countries sovereign territory without any formal declaration of war by the belligerent.

List of invasions - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

At present there are just over 20 armed conflicts going on world-wide that have reported more than 1,000 combat related deaths thus far in 2022,.

List of ongoing armed conflicts - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Is it not reasonable to then ask why are these conflicts not entitled to the same level of outrage, concern & support?

Cheers!

 

[StickerEater]

For your consideration:

At least 15 lawmakers who shape US defense policy have investments in military contractors​

At least 15 lawmakers who shape US defense policy have investments in military contractors

The lawmakers serve on the House Armed Services Committee and the Senate Armed Services Committee.

www.businessinsider.com

Since the year 2000 there have been some 16 invasions of another countries sovereign territory without any formal declaration of war by the belligerent.

List of invasions - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

At present there are just over 20 armed conflicts going on world-wide that have reported more than 1,000 combat related deaths thus far in 2022,.

List of ongoing armed conflicts - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Is it not reasonable to then ask why are these conflicts not entitled to the same level of outrage, concern & support?

Cheers!

I should clarify that the invasion of Ukraine was an UNJUSTIFIED invasion of a sovereign country. The majority of the conflicts you referred to were either counterinsurgency operations (Israel, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq) or restoration of democracy (Gambia, Anjuon).

The U.S. lawmakers on the other hand are kind of a mixed bag. While they would indeed benefit from the U.S. intervention in Ukraine, these members are on the Armed Service Committee, and understandably invest in defense contractors just like members on the agriculture committee invest in cotton or members in the Department of Energy invest in fossil fuels.

 

[Septic Limb]

Justified and unjustified is just a matter of what side of the fence you are on. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been in the making for the last 30 years. To bring the discussion back to where its supposed to be (my fault for instigating the runaway), I still believe that the Russians are locking down the Donbass and stopping there. Maybe pushing to the river for defense reasons but I believe they are done. The pressure on Kiev was a semi-fail and now its about strengthening their position.

 

[StickerEater]

Justified and unjustified is just a matter of what side of the fence you are on. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been in the making for the last 30 years. To bring the discussion back to where its supposed to be (my fault for instigating the runaway), I still believe that the Russians are locking down the Donbass and stopping there. Maybe pushing to the river for defense reasons but I believe they are done. The pressure on Kiev was a semi-fail and now its about strengthening their position.

I agree, it's all up to the Ukrainians how much territory they want to take back.

I would also like to point out that the advance the Russians had the most success on is the one where their forces had an actual reason to fight (ie. supporting separatists in the Donbas region).

 

[StickerEater]

Dang I really wanna play some more Black Sea now

 

[Nemesis]

Justified and unjustified is just a matter of what side of the fence you are on. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been in the making for the last 30 years. To bring the discussion back to where its supposed to be (my fault for instigating the runaway), I still believe that the Russians are locking down the Donbass and stopping there. Maybe pushing to the river for defense reasons but I believe they are done. The pressure on Kiev was a semi-fail and now its about strengthening their position.

Was Putin done after Chechnya? Georgia? Crimea? Donetsk? Luhansk? Now greater Ukraine?

This all reminds me of another dictator from the 1930s. What was his name? With everyone saying, "surely he is done now," after each new invasion.

History repeats itself. Don't be Neville Chamberlain.

 

[Septic Limb]

Was Putin done after Chechnya? Georgia? Crimea? Donetsk? Luhansk? Now greater Ukraine?

This all reminds me of another dictator from the 1930s. What was his name? With everyone saying, "surely he is done now," after each new invasion.

History repeats itself. Don't be Neville Chamberlain.

They are taking volunteers, feel free to sign up.

 

[olaf]

Close combat between Wagner PMC and Ukrainian troops in Popasna. Raw drone video without sound.

Action starts around 12:32

 

[olaf]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/ugnlgy

Caption (google translated):

Footage of fierce fighting in the Izyum direction, taken from the UAV. The Armed Forces of Ukraine took up defense in the hangars and were eventually destroyed. The video shows a tank duel, where the T-64BV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to hit a Russian tank, but eventually retreated and was hit. Two crew members were able to escape, leaving a third who appeared to be badly injured or killed. The position of the mortar crew was also covered by artillery fire.

 

[Gnarly]

Amazing close combat footage in that first one.

 

[A Canadian Cat]

I believed that it would just help drag out the civil war they where fighting

That that is where you are incorrect. Russia invaded back in 2014 both in Chrimea and Dombas. Remember the green man and all those soldiers on "vacation"? That was a Russian invasion. They even used regular Russian army units when Ukraine started making progress in pushing back the initial green men force.

 

[olaf]

Im convinced Russia dont stand a chance at this point, even in open terrain.

 

[Rico]

Extreme version of "hull down" position...

 

[Nemesis]

Im convinced Russia dont stand a chance at this point, even in open terrain.

I always look to history. The Russians have a long history of terrible starts in wars. And a long history of winning those wars.

Time will tell.

 

[olaf]

I always look to history. The Russians have a long history of terrible starts in wars. And a long history of winning those wars.

Time will tell.

That is certainly true.

I compare this to the Russo Japanese war where russias loss eventually led to the revolution of 1905.

 

[mTk]

Ukrainians make much better propaganda videos than do the Russians!
-----

 

[olaf]

Oh dear....

 

[Gnarly]

Posted by TheVulture over at the epic BF thread:

Having heard on the BBC (who just this morning got around to the famous bridging fiasco as breaking news) about how Russia is threatening to encircle Sievierodonetsk, I decided to summarise how the Russian 'threatening to encircle' reports have changed over the war so far:

 

[Bones26]

You have to wonder...

How is it possible to see Russia one moment as a power so weak that it could be pushed out of all former Ukrainian territory by force, and the next moment as a mighty threat to all of Europe or ‘freedom’ or ‘democracy’ or whatever?

If ‘the test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function’, then the current leadership class of the West are all geniuses.

Estimated total Russian defense spending in 2021 : $ 65.9 B USD$
Estimated total NATO defense spending in 2021 : $ 1,174 B USD$

Estimated total Russian military personnel under arms ( regular & reserve forces ) : 3,015 million
Estimated total NATO military personnel under arms ( regular & reserve forces ) : 8,420 million


Just saying...

Cheers!